Riding the Curve: Unveiling the Hype Cycle's Role in Business and Educational Transformation

There are loads of examples of frameworks or visual representations of change - many of which we will look at as FRiDEAS evolves over the years. One that I came across a number of years ago and discussed on the Edufuturists podcast a few times is Gartner's Hype Cycle.

This is a graphical representation used to illustrate the typical progression of an emerging technology or concept. It's commonly applied in the context of new technologies, but its principles can be extended to various fields beyond technology. The cycle is made up of five stages:

It starts with a Technology Trigger. This is the inception point where a new technology or concept is introduced, often triggering significant interest and media attention. It is often not that a viable product exists but that there is technology that mean it could exist.

Then, we reach the Peak of Inflated Expectations. At this stage, early publicity (in whatever form) generates a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Expectations for this technology or concept are inflated. It's when people are thinking this is the best thing since sliced bread even though unsliced bread that you rip off and dip in warm soup on a freezing cold day is WAYYYYY better than sliced bread...

The Trough of Disillusionment is the natural progression. Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. The technology or concept is no longer new, and its limitations are more widely understood. It isn't the panacea we thought and there is a natural lull.

More instances of how the technology or concept can benefit the user start to crystallise and become more widely understood which brings us to the Slope of Enlightenment. Second- and third-generation products appear that bring hope that the innovation has actually got legs.

The Plateau of Productivity is where we often end up if the idea has got this far. The technology's or concept's broader market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. Its realistic expectations are solidified, and the technology or concept becomes increasingly stable. We haven't got an over-hyped answer to every existential problem.

Applying the Hype Cycle isn't just a tech thing. It turns out this pattern of ups and downs is quite universal. Think of it like the life cycle of any new buzz – whether it's in fashion, business strategies, or even educational methods. It starts with everyone getting excited, then comes a bit of a reality check, and eventually, we all figure out how it really fits into the big picture. It's like that new hobby everyone's trying – at first, it's all the rage, then the novelty might wear off a bit, and finally, it finds its rightful place, either as a mainstay or just a fond memory.

So, if we want to apply this across business, education and the not-for-profit sector just like we do with the IDEAS Guy shizz, this is what it might look like:

1. Technology Trigger (A Shiny New Thing Appears!)

Business: A company dives into using AI for customer service. Robots answering phones? What a time to be alive!

Education: A school introduces 'Learning Through VR'. History lessons in the Colosseum, virtually!

Not-for-Profit: A charity launches an online mentorship programme, linking global professionals with underprivileged youth. "Digital bridges for brighter futures!"

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Everyone's Over the Moon)

Business: The company dreams of AI solving all customer woes. "Our bots will be the best chat mates ever (and we can save millions on staffing!)"

Education: The school imagines VR turning kids into instant whizzes. "Virtual Einstein in the making!"

Not-for-Profit: The charity envisions a sweeping global movement. "We're shaping tomorrow's leaders, one video call at a time!"

3. Trough of Disillusionment (The Oh-No Moment)

Business: Turns out, some customers miss human banter. "Why does this robot keep misunderstanding me?"

Education: Not all kids have VR-ready rooms at home. "Where do I swing my arms without knocking over mum's vase or stepping on the cat?"

Not-for-Profit: Coordinating time zones and tech glitches isn't all smooth sailing. "Wait, you're breaking up, can you hear me?"

4. Slope of Enlightenment (Lightbulb Moment!)

Business: The company fine-tunes AI for specific tasks, blending bots with human touch. "Robots for data, humans for chit-chat!"

Education: A blend of VR and traditional teaching finds its footing. "Some days in Rome, some days in the classroom."

Not-for-Profit: The programme evolves to include offline resources, bridging the digital divide. "Let's mix Zoom sessions with good old snail mail pen pals!"

5. Plateau of Productivity (Finding the Sweet Spot)

Business: The AI system becomes a reliable, efficient part of customer service. "Our digital helper's now a team member."

Education: VR is used where it adds value, not just for the sake of tech. "VR for the Pharaohs, textbooks for algebra."

Not-for-Profit: The mentorship programme balances digital and personal interactions. "We've got global connections with a human touch."

And there you have it, the Hype Cycle in full swing across different sectors. It's all about taking that initial spark of an idea, riding through the reality check, and landing at a spot where it genuinely makes a difference. A bit like brewing the perfect cup of tea – it's all in the timing and stirring!

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